Joe on Why Obama Will Win

My friend Joe in Seattle is a smart one. We were talking about how Obama's chances at winning are decent and I got to use the phrase "I don't like to count my chickens before they're hatched". He replied with the following...

You are right, anything can happen. However, I am confident. As you look at a state by state breakdown, it comes down to the fact that, barring some incredible change of events, Obama is gonna carry at minimum, Kerry+IA,CO,NM. That gives him 273, which would win. That doesn't take into account FL,NV or OH, which are obviously are very much in play, or even NC,MO,IN (and now, WV,ND and FUCKING MONTANA!), which are also very close. The idea floated yesterday is that PA is basically the only way McCain can win, and right now, I don't see any other way. And PA is running 10 points for Barack. And hasn't gone GOP in the general since the Reagan/Mondale wipeout in 1984.

McCain's campaign has been incredibly uneven and poorly run. At this point, they are throwing out as many inflammatory, partisan ideas as Steve Schmidt can come up with, and hoping something sticks. Independents(what few remain) have shown to not poll positively to that kind of campaigning.

Obama is an unprecedented candidate for so many reasons. One of the most amazing things to me is that, were he to win the general election, he will have beaten the two greatest political machines of our life time (the Clintons and Rovian Repubs, which this McCain campaign firmly is apart of).....pretty damn incredible. He has run as strong and organized of a campaign as we will ever see.

You are right....anything can happen. I have suffered from some severe liberal voter anxiety over the last few months (years). Every day, it seems like some new issue is coming up (Bradley effect, disenfranchised voters, etc), but in the end, I am confident that America, and middle America for that matter, is ready for some new fucking blood.

100,000 in STL for Obama! 2,000 for McCain two days later. That says a lot....

Well said and I sure hope you're right.